BIG MARLEY’S UFC 226 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

  • 1 Nov, 2019

There’s a lot of cash to be won this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the main tournament. I’ll be going heavier than normal this week chasing the big GPP prizes, and I will play less cash games than usual. This is actually the first time we’ve seen a 30k top prize so I think it’s well worth chasing if you’ve got the bankroll to get it. We did lose the co-main occasion with Max Holloway pulling out of the struggle against Brian Ortega, thus we’re now down to 11 battles and we should observe a lot of ties with this card with the more popular lineups. If you are pursuing that $30K then you’ll want to attempt to be a bit different with your lineup so you can separate yourself from the rest of the field. With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like as well as my fade of the week. Money Game play of this week — Paul Felder ($7,400) The DK pricing with this fight is way off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the betting line, Felder is the -150 favorite. That is just too much line worth to pass on in money games and that makes Felder that the”free square” this week. Even when he loses this battle, he should be so highly owned that it won’t even damage your lineup in cash games. In GPP’s, Felder will be one of the highest owned fighters on the card and when he loses there then it may kill your lineup, so maybe consider avoiding the chalk there in the event that you can. However, with this crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy choice for the money game play of the week. GPP drama of this week — Mike Perry ($8,800) Ok, I know this sounds a bit weird because I just chose Paul Felder as my money play of this week, but hear me out. In cash games, we don’t care about possession. In case Felder is 90% owned in cash games, then it will not damage your lineup since only 10% of lineups didn’t possess him and you merely have to be top ~50% of the field to cash in money games. In GPPs, I am guessing Felder will be over 50% owned. When he loses, that’s half of the area that is dead with no chance at winning 1st place. Mike Perry on the other hand will be less than 20% owned, and closer to 10% just due to the mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50% of lineups, then you also get a win using the low owned man to put you at a far better place of a solo 1st place win and maybe hitting $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anyone and Paul Felder is taking this fight on short notice in a weight class above his division. Would it really shock you much if Perry could KO him? In GPPs, we’re interested in finding that boom or bust play and that’s Mike Perry this week making him my GPP drama of this week. Underdog drama of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600) Anthony Pettis could have been a -500 favorite over Michael Chiesa if this struggle took place 5 decades ago, but today we get a evaporating Pettis as an underdog and $1,000 cheaper than Chiesa on DraftKings. I believe Pettis can keep this battle standing for many the struggle and that will give him a huge advantage. He is also dangerous on the floor himself and when he is taken I believe he will have the ability to get back up if he isn’t able to acquire a submission of his very own. In case Pettis can win a decision then I presume he will pay off his DK price tag and is going to be a fantastic underdog to utilize so you can save salary in your lineups. I can even find this fight ending from Pettis falling Chiesa with a human body kick and if that happens he will likely be on the winning lineup if he could make it happen in round 1. Fade of the week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100) At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I really do think that he wins the fight, but I don’t find him paying that high price . He doesn’t fight at a heavy pace and he has not gotten a takedown in his last 4 wins as well as the ground is where he’ll have his biggest edge in this matchup. In those previous 4 wins, Assuncao has not scored over 78 DK points and in his wages this week I want at least 91 points out of him to cover that much. I’d rather pay up for the guys higher priced than Assuncao, or go down to Vannata or Miocic. I’ll have 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will probably be in 0 of them, which makes him my fade of this week. Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 on this link below: http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks Read more: footballleagueworld.com

Author @Patrick Cohn

Dr. Patrick Cohn is the owner of Peak Performance Sports and a world-renowned mental training expert who works with athletes of all levels including junior, collegiate, professional, and senior athletes.
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