BIG MARLEY’S UFC 234 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

  • 11 Sep, 2019

This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings altered up their competitions somewhat and I like the new selection of contests and prizes. The main GPP is currently a $10 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st location. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 100 or so entries at the $30k prize. I’ll also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a fantastic amount of drama into money games. Cash Game play of this week — Shane Young ($9,100) I am really not loving this slate for money games, and that I was just going to pick the principal occasion stack for my money game play of the week. However, I can see the major event only scoring ~100 total points and when I’m stacking I need a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I have changed my stance on the stack and I think Shane Young creates a great cash game play. I really don’t know how high of a ceiling he’s because I do think this struggle goes 3 rounds, but I really do feel confident in him winning and much more confident in him not getting finished. I believe he’s a top floor since this fight should go all 3 rounds, but I think he’s the better fighter everywhere and that I see him winning this fight with a mixture of wrestling and striking. I do think he’s 100-point upside in a decision, and that I also think he could finish this fight. But I feel like he’s a secure play for 80+ and that is why he is my money game play of the week rather than my GPP play. GPP drama of this week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400) I believe the only way Kang loses this battle is by becoming KO’d. He must be the much superior fighter around the mat, and I believe he can hang on the toes too. I expect him to search for takedowns early and frequently, and Ishihara has no floor game to compete with him off his back. Since Ishihara does have heavy power in his hands I think Kang includes a floor of 0 things, but that is why he’s my GPP play of the week rather than my cash game play of the week. In money, I wish to lock in higher flooring and that’s not what we have here. I enjoy this more for GPPs because when he loses $9.4k it will not matter how many things he has, we would not be cashing. In cash games, we might still come away with a profit if he lost a determination at the price and still scored 30-40 points, we would simply have to hit our other spots. We don’t need 6 wins in cash, but we do for GPP. So, we can take the chance on a 0 because he’s 100+ upside because he is going to be the fighter attempting to grapple and that I could see him getting numerous takedowns in addition to a submission. I believe he has a 1st or 2nd round entry and I do not expect for him to stand too long using Ishihara. I think Kang can outscore Adesanya in this area and I enjoy him as a pivot from a big name who could be more popular. Underdog play of this week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300) I’m actually choosing Whittaker to win this fight, but I also don’t love many/any underdogs with this card. I expect this struggle to stay standing for as long as it continues. Personally, I see this going the distance and Whittaker winning a unanimous choice. If that is the case, then I believe Gastelum gets the highest floor of the underdogs because he will have 5 rounds to work with and he will land a fair number of shots. In addition, I think if Whittaker wins a 25-minute conclusion he probably just scores 85-95 DK points. At his $8.9k salary, that might not put him on the $30k lineup. In case Kelvin wins, if it be by KO or decision, he’ll probably be on that $30k lineup at his $7.3k salary. That is why he is my underdog play of the week. Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($7,900) I must remain on new with this one and select Sam Alvey as my fade of this week. I’ve picked him my fade every time he’s fought so that I am going to roll with it again. The style Alvey brings to the table is just not valuable for DraftKings. The only way Alvey could score highly is by getting a win. He does not strike a high enough speed to score highly at a decision and he won’t be heading for almost any takedowns. Even if he receives a conclusion win here he could score 50-60 DK points and that might not be enough to acquire a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I need at least 10x out of a fighter when I roster them and together with his $7.9k price label, so I need at least 79 DK points. I don’t see that happening and that is why he’s my fade of this week. Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below: (Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I am 54-34 to get +177.13u (+$17,713) since May 19th on Premium Plays) Read more: gulfcoastvball.org

Author @Bruce Brown

Bruce E. Brown has spent over 35 years as a teacher, coach, athletic administrator at the junior high, high school, junior college and collegiate level. He has coached football, basketball, baseball, and volleyball. Bruce and his team assists individuals, teams and organizations intentionally create, change or restore a culture of excellence and reach their full potential in both competence and character.
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